The 20% Rule: How Much Weight You Should Be Losing on GLP-1s
Let’s be honest, most people start GLP-1 medications with completely unrealistic expectations. We see someone on TikTok drop 40 pounds in 3 months, and suddenly our own progress feels wrong. Slow. Not enough.
And that spiral? It’s what makes people quit.
But what if you knew exactly how much weight you were supposed to be losing?
No more guessing. No more doom-scrolling. Just real numbers, based on real research.
That’s where the 20% rule comes in.
Wait, What’s the 20% Rule?
It’s a data-backed way to set realistic weight loss expectations on GLP-1s. Not based on hype. Not based on influencers. Based on clinical trials.
Here’s the research:
In the SURMOUNT-1 trial (tirzepatide):
5mg → 15% body weight lost
10mg → 19.5%
15mg → 20.9% (over 72 weeks)
In the STEP trial (semaglutide):
~14.9% average loss over 68 weeks
These were people with support, structure, movement plans, and regular check-ins. Not just a weekly injection and vibes. And they didn’t lose it all in 12 weeks, they lost it over a year or more.
So... What’s Your 20%?
Let’s do the math:
Take your current weight (not your starting weight).
Multiply by 0.20
That’s your 20% goal over the next 12 months.
Want your monthly average? Divide that number by 12.
Weekly average? Divide again by 4.
Example:
You weigh 212 lbs
212 × 0.20 = 42.4 lbs in a year
42.4 ÷ 12 = 3.5 lbs/month
That’s ~0.9 lbs/week
Still think you're "not doing enough?"
Let’s Talk Lower Weights
The smaller your starting point, the harder the numbers hit.
At 179.9 lbs, my 20% is just 36 lbs over a year.
That’s 3 lbs/month.
That’s less than a pound a week.
And that is still a WIN.
If you’ve already lost a lot, or you’re starting at a lower weight, you might only lose 1–2 lbs some months. That doesn’t mean it’s not working. It just means your journey looks different.
Why This Matters
Because when your expectations are grounded in reality:
You stop panicking over slow weeks
You stop thinking you’re behind
You stop quitting altogether
You understand that boring progress is actually sustainable progress.
Let’s Zoom Out
This is what real GLP-1 weight loss looks like:
Not always dramatic
Not always linear
But real. And lasting.
You may not impress TikTok.
You may not go viral.
But you will change your life.
You’ll have energy again.
You’ll wear the clothes you’ve been saving.
You’ll stop thinking about food all day.
And that’s the kind of transformation that matters.
Do the Math. Find Your Number.
This is your number. Not anyone else's. And it’s yours to chase, your pace to keep.
If you want support while you do it, I’ve got two free tools just for you:
📥 Download the GLP-1 Starter Guide (Free)
💬 Join The GLP1 Girl Community (Free)
And when the spiral hits? Come back to this post. Come back to your number. You’re doing better than you think.
